Around this time of year, every year, fantasy fans everywhere are treated with endless mock drafts from expert analysts and beat writers. I personally don't waste my time doing mock drafts. That doesn't mean I believe they're entirely pointless though. In fact, quite the opposite. For one, they're already done for me and mock drafts serve as my trend analysis. It gives me insight on the respective quality of players and the impact they're expected to have on the teams that draft them. For example, if multiple mock drafts are predicting dozens of offensive skills position players early and often throughout rd 1 then it's likely teams consider these players more talented and expect them to have a more immediate role with the teams who draft them. Clearly this means I value them more when considering drafting them. On the other hand when offensive skill players are not in high demand throughout the 1st rd of the draft it's likely they're not regarded as immediate impact players and thus their fantasy value is not as high. Of course this isn't always the case. We've seen players drafted in later round make big splashes but it's like finding a needle in a haystack.
What trends are in this year's mock drafts?
After analyzing over a dozen 1st round mock drafts I found some interesting trends that are really going to shape how I proceed with my fantasy drafts this year. First and most notable. Not a single RB or TE were selected in any one of the mock drafts I reviewed. Second, on average 5 QBs were selected in the 1st Rd of these mocks but the term "Franchise QB" rarely came up when describing any of them. Finally, rookie WRs may rule the fantasy day again 22'. There are 5 WRs being selected on average in each of the mocks I reviewed. After the previous two NFL drafts produced us fantasy studs like Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase I have no reason to believe there won't be at least a star WR or two from this year's 1st rd draftees.
How does this impact fantasy drafts?
Everyone's fantasy league and draft strategies are a little different. With the trends I'm seeing though, I personally am going to put more fantasy value on drafting 2nd year players expected to breakout and players going into contract seasons who could breakout trying to earn a new contract. It's still early so I could be wrong but this year's draft class doesn't really move the needle for me in terms of fantasy. With the exception of WRs I don't get the feeling that there will be many offensive skill players getting roles large enough to make an immediate impact on the teams that draft them which will significantly impact their fantasy value. I'm not saying I won't draft any rookies for my fantasy team, it's just not likely I pick them very high and I don't recommend anyone else do either.
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