We are down to two weeks left in the regular season and there is still A LOT to be determined. Let’s look at the NFC first. We know four of the seven playoff teams so far (49ers, Lions, Eagles and Cowboys), all but Dallas are currently tied at 11-4. The Bucs have an 85% chance of making the playoffs, while the Rams and Seahawks have a 75% chance and 71% chance, respectively. Of the NFC teams that still have reasonable hope, the Packers’ chances are at 29%, the Vikings at 19% and the Saints at 11%. The Packers and Vikings square off in the Week 17 finale in what is the biggest game of the season for both teams to this point. If Green Bay wins, their playoff chances go from 29% to 54%, (a loss would all but eliminate them, as their chances would fall to less than 1%). The Vikings with a win would go from 19% to 39% (and down to 2% with a loss). The Packers did not get much help this weekend (Atlanta, Seattle and the Rams all won) – however the 49ers’ loss did give them a boost. The 49ers likely need to win their final 2 games to guarantee the #1 seed. This is important to the Packers because the 49ers face the Rams in Week 18 and the Packers’ easiest path to the playoffs is to beat the Vikings and Bears, and get 1 Rams loss.
Now let’s look at the AFC. We only know two of the seven playoff teams so far; Ravens and Dolphins. Ironically, they face off this week. The Ravens will clinch the #1 seed with a win. The Dolphins will clinch the #1 seed with a win this week, and a win in Week 18. The Browns (99%), Chiefs (97%) and Bills (91%) are all feeling pretty safe in terms of making the playoffs. That leaves two spots for seven teams. The Jags have a 79% chance of getting in (68% chance to win the division), while the Colts are at 48%, the Texans at 38%, Bengals at 18% and Steelers at 12%. The Raiders and Broncos are both still alive but need so much help, it’s unlikely they will get in.
The MVP race is certainly heating up, as Lamar Jackson is the new betting favorite after dismantling the 49ers on Monday Night Football. If he were to struggle next week against Miami though, I think we may hear some real noise about either Christian McCaffrey or Tyreek Hill winning the award.
In the Prime Time Pick’em this week, we went 4-3. The Patriots made me look like a genius but the Chiefs and 49ers kept me from having a 6-1 week. The season record moves to 36-25 and is now guaranteed to finish over .500. We are down to just three prime time games this week. The Browns host the Jets in the final Thursday night game of the season. The Jets have looked respectable over the last three weeks but the Browns have something to play for, so give me Cleveland. On Saturday, I’m going to take the Cowboys at home over the Lions – but I expect this to be a dogfight. And on Sunday Night Football we have the Vikings hosting the Packers in what is a must-win game for both teams. You know the rule by now – give me the Vikings.
Here are the rankings as we head to Week 17. Teams’ previous ranking in ( ).
1. Baltimore Ravens (2): They’ve had seven wins this year by 14+ points that currently have a winning record. It’s time for me to finally give this team some respect, because to this point I just haven’t been a believer.
2. Miami Dolphins (6): They got a much-needed win against a team over .500. Can they make it two in a row and give themselves the inside track to the #1 seed?
3. San Francisco 49ers (1): They’re still the best team in the NFC and let’s be honest, if they play Baltimore again, it’s going to be a much different game.
4. Buffalo Bills (3): Buffalo now controls their own playoff destiny and is going to be the last team anyone in the AFC wants to face.
5. Cleveland Browns (5): A win against the Jets this week clinches a playoff spot for Cleveland. We have a real possibility of seeing Joe Flacco face the Ravens the playoffs.
6. Philadelphia Eagles (7): They ended their three-game skid but I’m not sure Eagles fans walked away from that game feeling much better about things.
7. Detroit Lions (9): The defense isn’t great – but this team is still for real. They are going to scare the hell out of anyone they play in January.
8. Dallas Cowboys (6): Sure feels like this is another one-and-done season in the playoffs for the Cowboys, especially since it does not appear they will have a home-game.
9. Los Angeles Rams (11): Speaking of teams that terrify other NFC teams, the Rams could be a sneaky pick to make a deep run in January.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (16): Tampa is now in the driver seat in the NFC South and can clinch the division with a win Sunday, coupled with a Falcons loss.
11. Kansas City Chiefs (8): I wasn’t worried about the Chiefs all year – but I am now. They seem to be unraveling at the worst time. But, back-to-back defensive touchdowns against them is certainly unlikely to happen again, so if the offense can simply take care of the ball, I still think they can beat anyone in football.
12. Houston Texans (10): Houston currently sits as the first team outside of the AFC playoff picture, but nonetheless they are in control of their own playoff fate; if they win their last two games, they’ll be in the playoffs as either a wild card or division winner.
13. Seattle Seahawks (18): The Seahawks had no business winning either of their last two games, and yet found a way to win both and now control their own playoff destiny. If they beat the Steelers and Cardinals to end the season, they’re in.
14. Cincinnati Bengals (12): Losing to Mason Rudolph on Christmas Eve put a huge damper on their playoff hopes. If they beat the Chiefs and Browns to end the season, they have a great shot of getting in, but it’s hard to see them winning both of those games.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars (13): They’ve lost four straight and somehow still lead the AFC South via tiebreakers. They get Carolina this week so even if Trevor Lawrence can’t go, I like their chances to finally get back in the win column.
16. Indianapolis Colts (14): The Colts have lost two of three but are still hanging on to the final playoff spot by a thread. They finish the year with two homes games; the Raiders and the Texans. They probably need to win both to clinch a playoff berth.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (21): The Steelers finish with two road games against the Seahawks and Ravens. They’ll need to win both and get a little bit of help if they want to sneak in as the #7 seed.
18. Chicago Bears (24): It’s Week 17 and the Bears are not mathematically eliminated. Not only that, but with games left against the Falcons and Packers, Chicago could finish at 8-9, which absolutely nobody saw coming into the season.
19. Green Bay Packers (20): Three consecutive weeks, the Packers have allowed a quarterback to have their career best game. That’s not a recipe for success.
20. Denver Broncos (15): After winning five straight to get back into the playoff mix, Denver has now lost three of four and is all but out of the playoff race.
21. New Orleans Saints (17): The Saints desperately need a win this week if they have any hope of a playoff berth.
22. Minnesota Vikings (19): The Vikings have fallen out of the playoffs and into the #8 seed, and are apparently considering starting Jaren Hall at QB this week. Frankly, they could start Justin Jefferson at QB and have a shot at torching the Packers pass defense.
23. Las Vegas Raiders (26): The Raiders are not only still mathematically alive, they are still alive for the AFC West division title. Their final two games are against the Colts and Broncos, so finishing 9-8 is certainly in the realm of possibility – but whether that will be enough seems unlikely.
24. Atlanta Falcons (22): The Falcons are still alive in both the division and wild card, but likely need two road wins (Chicago and New Orleans) to have any hope of joining the dance.
25. New York Jets (25): The offense has scored 30 points in their last two wins, after having scored a total of 45 in their last six losses.
26. Tennessee Titans (23): Even at 5-10, the Titans’ last three losses were all by three points. They could very easily be sitting at 8-7 right now.
27. New York Giants (27): After three straight wins, the Giants have now lost two straight and Tommy DeVito has been benched. I could be wrong but, I think it’s safe to say his 15 minutes of fame are officially over.
28. Los Angeles Chargers (28): The Chargers bounced back after allowing 63 points to the Raiders by nearly beating the Bills. While they are no longer in playoff contention, they could still end the season on a positive as they have games against the Broncos and Chiefs to end the season.
29. New England Patriots (31): The Patriots have won 2 of 3 and are no longer guaranteed a top 3 pick in the 2024 draft.
30. Arizona Cardinals (29): The Cardinals now have a top-2 pick locked up if they lose-out. I don’t see them beating Philly this week but, I could certainly see them beating Seattle in the final week, if there’s a chance they could eliminate their division foe from the playoffs.
31. Washington Commanders (30): They gave a valiant effort after trailing 20-0 and 27-7 but did what they do best and found a way to lose. With games left against the 49ers and Cowboys, it sure seems like Washington is done winning games this season.
32. Carolina Panthers (32): They had their best performance of the season, by a mile, and had they had 1 more second on the clock, may have been able to force overtime. They don’t own their first-round pick so there is most definitely no reason for them to tank. I expect them to give the Jags and Bucs everything they have over the final two weeks.
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